The potential use of operational radar network data to evaluate the representation of convective storms in NWP models

Operational forecasting centres increasingly rely on convection-permitting NWP simulations to assist in their forecasting of convective events. The evaluation of upgrades in the underlying NWP modeling system normally happens through routine verification using traditional metrics on two-dimensional fields, such as gridded rainfall data. Object- and process-based evaluation can identify specific physical mechanisms for model improvement, but such evaluation procedures normally require targeted and expensive field campaigns. Here, we explore the potential use of the UK operational radar network observations and its derived 3D composite product for evaluating the representation of convective storms in the Met Office Unified Model. A comparison of the 1 km x 1 km x 0.5 km 3D radar composites against observations made with the research-grade radar at Chilbolton in the southern UK indicates that the 3D radar composite data can reliably be used to evaluate the morphology of convective storms. The 3D radar composite data are subsequently used to evaluate the development of convective storms in the Met Office Unified Model. Such analysis was heretofore unavailable due to a lack of high-frequency three-dimensional radar data. The operational nature of the UK radar data makes these 3D composites a valuable resource for future studies of the initiation, growth, development, and organisation of convective storms over the UK

Probing black hole accretion tracks, scaling relations, and radiative efficiencies from stacked X-ray active galactic nuclei

The masses of supermassive black holes at the centres of local galaxies appear to be tightly correlated with the mass and velocity dispersions of their galactic hosts. However, the local Mbh–Mstar relation inferred from dynamically measured inactive black holes is up to an order-of-magnitude higher than some estimates from active black holes, and recent work suggests that this discrepancy arises from selection bias on the sample of dynamical black hole mass measurements. In this work, we combine X-ray measurements of the mean black hole accretion luminosity as a function of stellar mass and redshift with empirical models of galaxy stellar mass growth, integrating over time to predict the evolving Mbh–Mstar relation. The implied relation is nearly independent of redshift, indicating that stellar and black hole masses grow, on average, at similar rates. Matching the de-biased local Mbh–Mstar relation requires a mean radiative efficiency ε ≳ 0.15, in line with theoretical expectations for accretion on to spinning black holes. However, matching the ‘raw’ observed relation for inactive black holes requires ε ∼ 0.02, far below theoretical expectations. This result provides independent evidence for selection bias in dynamically estimated black hole masses, a conclusion that is robust to uncertainties in bolometric corrections, obscured active black hole fractions, and kinetic accretion efficiency. For our fiducial assumptions, they favour moderate-to-rapid spins of typical supermassive black holes, to achieve ε ∼ 0.12–0.20. Our approach has similarities to the classic Soltan analysis, but by using galaxy-based data instead of integrated quantities we are able to focus on regimes where observational uncertainties are minimized

Whole Genome Sequence Analysis of Cryptococcus gattii from the Pacific Northwest Reveals Unexpected Diversity

A recent emergence of Cryptococcus gattii in the Pacific Northwest involves strains that fall into three primarily clonal molecular subtypes: VGIIa, VGIIb and VGIIc. Multilocus sequence typing (MLST) and variable number tandem repeat analysis appear to identify little diversity within these molecular subtypes. Given the apparent expansion of these subtypes into new geographic areas and their ability to cause disease in immunocompetent individuals, differentiation of isolates belonging to these subtypes could be very important from a public health perspective. We used whole genome sequence typing (WGST) to perform fine-scale phylogenetic analysis on 20 C. gattii isolates, 18 of which are from the VGII molecular type largely responsible for the Pacific Northwest emergence. Analysis both including and excluding (289,586 SNPs and 56,845 SNPs, respectively) molecular types VGI and VGIII isolates resulted in phylogenetic reconstructions consistent, for the most part, with MLST analysis but with far greater resolution among isolates. The WGST analysis presented here resulted in identification of over 100 SNPs among eight VGIIc isolates as well as unique genotypes for each of the VGIIa, VGIIb and VGIIc isolates. Similar levels of genetic diversity were found within each of the molecular subtype isolates, despite the fact that the VGIIb clade is thought to have emerged much earlier. The analysis presented here is the first multi-genome WGST study to focus on the C. gattii molecular subtypes involved in the Pacific Northwest emergence and describes the tools that will further our understanding of this emerging pathogen

Cerebral microbleeds and intracranial haemorrhage risk in patients anticoagulated for atrial fibrillation after acute ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack (CROMIS-2):a multicentre observational cohort study

Background: Cerebral microbleeds are a potential neuroimaging biomarker of cerebral small vessel diseases that are prone to intracranial bleeding. We aimed to determine whether presence of cerebral microbleeds can identify patients at high risk of symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage when anticoagulated for atrial fibrillation after recent ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack. Methods: Our observational, multicentre, prospective inception cohort study recruited adults aged 18 years or older from 79 hospitals in the UK and one in the Netherlands with atrial fibrillation and recent acute ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack, treated with a vitamin K antagonist or direct oral anticoagulant, and followed up for 24 months using general practitioner and patient postal questionnaires, telephone interviews, hospital visits, and National Health Service digital data on hospital admissions or death. We excluded patients if they could not undergo MRI, had a definite contraindication to anticoagulation, or had previously received therapeutic anticoagulation. The primary outcome was symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage occurring at any time before the final follow-up at 24 months. The log-rank test was used to compare rates of intracranial haemorrhage between those with and without cerebral microbleeds. We developed two prediction models using Cox regression: first, including all predictors associated with intracranial haemorrhage at the 20% level in univariable analysis; and second, including cerebral microbleed presence and HAS-BLED score. We then compared these with the HAS-BLED score alone. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02513316. Findings: Between Aug 4, 2011, and July 31, 2015, we recruited 1490 participants of whom follow-up data were available for 1447 (97%), over a mean period of 850 days (SD 373; 3366 patient-years). The symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage rate in patients with cerebral microbleeds was 9·8 per 1000 patient-years (95% CI 4·0–20·3) compared with 2·6 per 1000 patient-years (95% CI 1·1–5·4) in those without cerebral microbleeds (adjusted hazard ratio 3·67, 95% CI 1·27–10·60). Compared with the HAS-BLED score alone (C-index 0·41, 95% CI 0·29–0·53), models including cerebral microbleeds and HAS-BLED (0·66, 0·53–0·80) and cerebral microbleeds, diabetes, anticoagulant type, and HAS-BLED (0·74, 0·60–0·88) predicted symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage significantly better (difference in C-index 0·25, 95% CI 0·07–0·43, p=0·0065; and 0·33, 0·14–0·51, p=0·00059, respectively). Interpretation: In patients with atrial fibrillation anticoagulated after recent ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack, cerebral microbleed presence is independently associated with symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage risk and could be used to inform anticoagulation decisions. Large-scale collaborative observational cohort analyses are needed to refine and validate intracranial haemorrhage risk scores incorporating cerebral microbleeds to identify patients at risk of net harm from oral anticoagulation. Funding: The Stroke Association and the British Heart Foundation

Measurements of the charge asymmetry in top-quark pair production in the dilepton final state at s √ =8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Measurements of the top-antitop quark pair production charge asymmetry in the dilepton channel, characterized by two high-pT leptons (electrons or muons), are presented using data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 20.3  fb−1 from pp collisions at a center-of-mass energy s√=8  TeV collected with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider at CERN. Inclusive and differential measurements as a function of the invariant mass, transverse momentum, and longitudinal boost of the tt¯ system are performed both in the full phase space and in a fiducial phase space closely matching the detector acceptance. Two observables are studied: AℓℓC based on the selected leptons and Att¯C based on the reconstructed tt¯ final state. The inclusive asymmetries are measured in the full phase space to be AℓℓC=0.008±0.006 and Att¯C=0.021±0.016, which are in agreement with the Standard Model predictions of AℓℓC=0.0064±0.0003 and Att¯C=0.0111±0.0004

Study of the B-c(+) -> J/psi D-s(+) and Bc(+) -> J/psi D-s*(+) decays with the ATLAS detector

The decays B-c(+) -> J/psi D-s(+) and B-c(+) -> J/psi D-s*(+) are studied with the ATLAS detector at the LHC using a dataset corresponding to integrated luminosities of 4.9 and 20.6 fb(-1) of pp collisions collected at centre-of-mass energies root s = 7 TeV and 8 TeV, respectively. Signal candidates are identified through J/psi -> mu(+)mu(-) and D-s(()*()+) -> phi pi(+)(gamma/pi(0)) decays. With a two-dimensional likelihood fit involving the B-c(+) reconstructed invariant mass and an angle between the mu(+) and D-s(+) candidate momenta in the muon pair rest frame, the yields of B-c(+) -> J/psi D-s(+) and B-c(+) -> J/psi D-s*(+), and the transverse polarisation fraction in B-c(+) -> J/psi D-s*(+) decay are measured. The transverse polarisation fraction is determined to be Gamma +/-+/-(B-c(+) -> J/psi D-s*(+))/Gamma(B-c(+) -> J/psi D-s*(+)) = 0.38 +/- 0.23 +/- 0.07, and the derived ratio of the branching fractions of the two modes is B-Bc+ -> J/psi D-s*+/B-Bc+ -> J/psi D-s(+) = 2.8(-0.8)(+1.2) +/- 0.3, where the first error is statistical and the second is systematic. Finally, a sample of B-c(+) -> J/psi pi(+) decays is used to derive the ratios of branching fractions B-Bc+ -> J/psi D-s*+/B-Bc+ -> J/psi pi(+) = 3.8 +/- 1.1 +/- 0.4 +/- 0.2 and B-Bc+ -> J/psi D-s*+/B-Bc+ -> J/psi pi(+) = 10.4 +/- 3.1 +/- 1.5 +/- 0.6, where the third error corresponds to the uncertainty of the branching fraction of D-s(+) -> phi(K+ K-)pi(+) decay. The available theoretical predictions are generally consistent with the measurement

Multiple novel prostate cancer susceptibility signals identified by fine-mapping of known risk loci among Europeans

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified numerous common prostate cancer (PrCa) susceptibility loci. We have fine-mapped 64 GWAS regions known at the conclusion of the iCOGS study using large-scale genotyping and imputation in 25 723 PrCa cases and 26 274 controls of European ancestry. We detected evidence for multiple independent signals at 16 regions, 12 of which contained additional newly identified significant associations. A single signal comprising a spectrum of correlated variation was observed at 39 regions; 35 of which are now described by a novel more significantly associated lead SNP, while the originally reported variant remained as the lead SNP only in 4 regions. We also confirmed two association signals in Europeans that had been previously reported only in East-Asian GWAS. Based on statistical evidence and linkage disequilibrium (LD) structure, we have curated and narrowed down the list of the most likely candidate causal variants for each region. Functional annotation using data from ENCODE filtered for PrCa cell lines and eQTL analysis demonstrated significant enrichment for overlap with bio-features within this set. By incorporating the novel risk variants identified here alongside the refined data for existing association signals, we estimate that these loci now explain ∼38.9% of the familial relative risk of PrCa, an 8.9% improvement over the previously reported GWAS tag SNPs. This suggests that a significant fraction of the heritability of PrCa may have been hidden during the discovery phase of GWAS, in particular due to the presence of multiple independent signals within the same regio

Genetic mechanisms of critical illness in COVID-19.

Host-mediated lung inflammation is present1, and drives mortality2, in the critical illness caused by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Host genetic variants associated with critical illness may identify mechanistic targets for therapeutic development3. Here we report the results of the GenOMICC (Genetics Of Mortality In Critical Care) genome-wide association study in 2,244 critically ill patients with COVID-19 from 208 UK intensive care units. We have identified and replicated the following new genome-wide significant associations: on chromosome 12q24.13 (rs10735079, P = 1.65 × 10-8) in a gene cluster that encodes antiviral restriction enzyme activators (OAS1, OAS2 and OAS3); on chromosome 19p13.2 (rs74956615, P = 2.3 × 10-8) near the gene that encodes tyrosine kinase 2 (TYK2); on chromosome 19p13.3 (rs2109069, P = 3.98 ×  10-12) within the gene that encodes dipeptidyl peptidase 9 (DPP9); and on chromosome 21q22.1 (rs2236757, P = 4.99 × 10-8) in the interferon receptor gene IFNAR2. We identified potential targets for repurposing of licensed medications: using Mendelian randomization, we found evidence that low expression of IFNAR2, or high expression of TYK2, are associated with life-threatening disease; and transcriptome-wide association in lung tissue revealed that high expression of the monocyte-macrophage chemotactic receptor CCR2 is associated with severe COVID-19. Our results identify robust genetic signals relating to key host antiviral defence mechanisms and mediators of inflammatory organ damage in COVID-19. Both mechanisms may be amenable to targeted treatment with existing drugs. However, large-scale randomized clinical trials will be essential before any change to clinical practice

Molecular mechanisms of cell death: recommendations of the Nomenclature Committee on Cell Death 2018.

Over the past decade, the Nomenclature Committee on Cell Death (NCCD) has formulated guidelines for the definition and interpretation of cell death from morphological, biochemical, and functional perspectives. Since the field continues to expand and novel mechanisms that orchestrate multiple cell death pathways are unveiled, we propose an updated classification of cell death subroutines focusing on mechanistic and essential (as opposed to correlative and dispensable) aspects of the process. As we provide molecularly oriented definitions of terms including intrinsic apoptosis, extrinsic apoptosis, mitochondrial permeability transition (MPT)-driven necrosis, necroptosis, ferroptosis, pyroptosis, parthanatos, entotic cell death, NETotic cell death, lysosome-dependent cell death, autophagy-dependent cell death, immunogenic cell death, cellular senescence, and mitotic catastrophe, we discuss the utility of neologisms that refer to highly specialized instances of these processes. The mission of the NCCD is to provide a widely accepted nomenclature on cell death in support of the continued development of the field

Finishing the euchromatic sequence of the human genome

The sequence of the human genome encodes the genetic instructions for human physiology, as well as rich information about human evolution. In 2001, the International Human Genome Sequencing Consortium reported a draft sequence of the euchromatic portion of the human genome. Since then, the international collaboration has worked to convert this draft into a genome sequence with high accuracy and nearly complete coverage. Here, we report the result of this finishing process. The current genome sequence (Build 35) contains 2.85 billion nucleotides interrupted by only 341 gaps. It covers ∼99% of the euchromatic genome and is accurate to an error rate of ∼1 event per 100,000 bases. Many of the remaining euchromatic gaps are associated with segmental duplications and will require focused work with new methods. The near-complete sequence, the first for a vertebrate, greatly improves the precision of biological analyses of the human genome including studies of gene number, birth and death. Notably, the human enome seems to encode only 20,000-25,000 protein-coding genes. The genome sequence reported here should serve as a firm foundation for biomedical research in the decades ahead